In-Region Workshop on North Indian Ocean Storm Surge Modelling

2nd Advisory workshop on Enhancing Forecasting Capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges

11 – 15 Feb 2011, New Delhi, India

Group Picture The 2nd Advisory Workshop on enhancing the forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges (IIT-D storm surge model upgrade) was held in India at Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi) during 11-15 February 2011. This workshop was organized to review the progress on the recommendations made in the first workshop held in IIT Delhi, India, from 14 to 17 July 2009 (see http://www.jcomm.info/SSIndia). It was conducted under the framework of the UNESCO project on “Enhancing regional capabilities for Coastal Hazards Forecasting and Data Portal Systems”. The international experts reviewed current status/performance of operational storm surge forecasting model (IIT-D Model) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region, the mid-term plan on up-gradation of IIT-D storm surge model; and provided necessary scientific and technical advice. During this workshop, the IIT-Delhi working group demonstrated the enhanced model’s performance in hindcast/operational mode, the combined effect of the interaction of storm surge with tides and wind waves on the Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE). The workshop provided a forum for discussion on the regional development and applications of the upgraded IIT-D model, which would improve SS predictability in the NIO region. The Expert Scientific Advisory Committee and IIT-Delhi working reviewed the medium-term and long-term plans for IIT-D model upgrade and revised them wherever necessary, and decided on the future model upgrade strategy. The workshop also decided on the future course of action in view of collaborating and linking with related international programmes and projects, such as the JCOMM-CHy Coastal Inundation Forecast Demonstration Project (CIFDP) and the eSurge project funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) in which the IOC of UNESCO are supporting and participating. Linkages with other regional projects/programmes was also deliberated and finalized Highlights and recommendations from the workshop are the following: Regarding tide-surge interaction it was recommended that the tidal forcing at the open boundary should be provided as a time-dependent series of ocean tide constituents, so that the TWLE as a result of tide surge interaction may be operationalized in the region. In doing so, the Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) advised that methodology for operation be worked out to eventually incorporate the effects of wave coupling in order that the wave setup contribution to the Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE). The importance of collaborative efforts to complete the in-situ observational network in the NIO region by all countries was emphasized, and suggestions were made that the countries continue to extend the buoy and tide gauge networks for the area of interest. The workshop reemphasized its earlier recommendations to improve the storm surge predictability of the operational system, including enhanced nowcasting and further improvement of ensemble methods for track prediction. Establishing a link of collaboration of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and other Indian agencies with ESA especially in developing and utilizing eSurge database and training material (targeting the anticipated training event in 2012). The storm surge experts of the NIO region while expressing satisfaction on the operational use of IIT-D model agreed to participate in the project’s action plan to improve the storm surge predictability, including upgrading of meteorological/oceanographic observational network and provision of case study results by using the IIT-D model. The development of CIFDP, jointly by the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography (JCOMM) and Marine Meteorology and the WMO Commission for Hydrology (CHy), was well noted and welcomed, particularly in view of the TWLE as final deliverable of a forecasting system. The participating experts welcomed the decision of the CIFDP to select the Bay of Bengal as the priority region for the project. It was advised that there should be a close linkage between this project (and following activities in the region) and CIFDP. In connection with the ESA Storm Surge project, eSurge , it was recommended that, all countries in the region (and the India Meteorological Department as Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre) may become Users of the eSurge project, in order to enhance their forecasting and warning systems. The SAC recommended that eSurge establish the appropriate domain coving Indian Ocean, in producing and archiving satellite products. The experts participating in the workshop deliberated on the key requirements. It was emphasized that in order to have continued improvement in the forecasting system it is important that there should be a mechanism through which the relevant data be freely exchanged among the NIO countries. In order to have better coordinated efforts for observing networks and services, greater cooperation, collaboration and commitment of NIO countries/governments were urged, Toward the success of this project, the SAC strongly recommended enhancing linkage between this project with other regional/global programmes such as CIFDP, eSurge , and Indian Ocean Global Ocean Observing System (IOGOOS) as future direction for enhancing forecasting capability in the region. As for the capacity building and outreach, it was agreed that the training on IIT-D model development and operation should continue, in collaboration with ongoing programmes of WMO and IOC. The workshop reviewed the Project Action Plan agreed at the 1st Advisory workshop in 2009 and revised as necessary. Continued from the previous workshop, this event is planned and conducted under the framework of the UNESCO extrabudgetary project on “Enhancing regional capabilities for Coastal Hazards Forecasting and Data Portal Systems”, funded by extrabudgetary contribution from Republic of Korea. The India Ministry of Earth Science (MoES) including the IIT Delhi continues to co-sponsor the project.

Location

Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Hauz Khan

New Delhi 110 016
India

Organisers and Staff

Organisers
Prof Kevin Horsburgh
Prof. Shishir Dube
Staff
Dr. Boram Lee
0

Opening

0.1

Concept and Objectives

1

Session 1 (Friday 11 February)

1.1

Progress report on the enhanced model in operational mode

1.2

Progress report on the tide-surge interaction

1.3

Progress report on the incorporation of wave-setup

1.4

Progress report on the quantification of contribution made by Topographic Rossby Waves and Continental shelf waves on the Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE)

2

Session 2 (Saturday 12 February)

2.1

Discussion: model dynamics

2.2

Current status on upgrade of infrastructure and forecasting skill

2.3

Current status on upgrade of Ocean Observing Systems

2.4

Status of the satellite observing systems and their application in extreme wave modeling

2.5

Discussion : model operation and data requirement

3

Session 3 (Monday 14 February)

3.1

Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model - Bangladesh

3.2

Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model - Maldives

3.3

Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model - Pakistan

3.4

Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model - Sri Lanka

3.5

Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model - Thailand

3.6

Tropical cyclones and related storm surges in Oman and North Indian Ocean region (tentative)

3.7

Discussion: Regional aspects of modelling, and requirements for a warning system

4

Session 4 (Tuesday 15 February)

4.1

Presentation on the status of coastal inundation modeling

4.2

Progress in the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)

4.3

ESA Storm Surge Project : requirement in relation to North Indian Ocean activities

4.4

Discussion: link with /contribution to related regional activities

4.5

Discussions and Wrap-up

Report Documents

Code Title
IOC-WR-239 2nd Advisory Workshop on enhancing forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges

Agenda Documents

Agenda Code Title
0.1 Concept and Objectives of the workshop
1.1 Progress Report on the Enhanced model in operational mode
1.2 Progress Report on the Tide-surge interaction
1.3 Progress Report on the Incorporation of wave-setup
1.4 Kallakkadal - Coastal flooding due to remote forcing
2.2 Current Status on upgrade of infrastructure and cyclone forecasting skill of IMD
2.3 Ocean Observing Systems
2.4 Present status on the satellite observing systems and their application in extreme wave modelling
3.1 Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model
3.2 Storm Surge cases in Maldives
3.3 Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model - Pakistan
3.4 Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model - Sri Lanka
3.5 Case studies and simulations by using the IIT-D model - Thailand
3.6 Tropical cyclones and related storm surges in Oman
4.1 Coastal inundation modelling
4.2 Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project
4.3 An overview of the ESA Storm Surge Demonstration Project (eSurge)

Background Documents

Code Title
JOMM2007SSS: Agreed Recommendations and Actions
IOC-WR-223 Advisory Workshop on enhancing forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges

Other Documents

Code Title
ESA Storm Surge (eSurge) Demonstration Service: User Requirements Document

Participant Stats:

Staff and organisers 3
Confirmed 23
Not Confirmed 1
Not-participating 0
Total 27
Groups: IOC Capacity Development, JCOMM, Tsunami
Created at 16:38 on 4 August 2010 by Dr. Boram Lee
Last Updated at 11:44 on 29 November 2011 by Dr. Boram Lee
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